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Early Warning System for recording outages from the assembly line
Makovičková, Lucie ; Zuth, Daniel (referee) ; Maradová, Karla (advisor)
The bachelor's thesis on a topic “Early Warning System for recording outages from the assembly line“ aims to update assembly line outages, thanks to what the work gained a good motive to present the Early Warning System process in practice, in the company Bosch Diesel s.r.o. Jihlava, where this update of assembly line outages takes place. The work first introduces the high-pressure pumps and their assembly lines, which are the most connected to the system. Then the basic elements of the system are described, and the Power BI system is defined. The practical part explains way of collecting the necessary data for outages updating and how the Early Warning System gets the information about outage during the installation of a high-pressure pump on the assembly line to the higher responsible persons. Subsequently, thanks to the obtained statistical overview of all outages and to the performed visualizations in the Power BI system, the knowledge is evaluated.
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Systemic Risks Assessment and Systemic Events Prediction: Early Warning System Design for the Czech Republic
Žigraiová, Diana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
This thesis develops an early warning system framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs, over the short horizon of six quarters and the long horizon of twelve quarters on the panel of 14 countries both advanced and developing. Firstly, Financial Stress Index is built aggregating indicators from equity, foreign exchange, security and money markets in order to identify starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Secondly, the selection of early warning indicators for assessment and prediction of systemic risks is undertaken in a two- step approach; relevant prediction horizons for each indicator are found by means of a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging method to identify the most useful indicators. Next, logit models containing useful indicators only are estimated on the panel while their in-sample and out-of-sample performance is assessed by a variety of measures. Finally, having applied the constructed EWS for both horizons to the Czech Republic it was found that even though models for both horizons perform very well in-sample, i.e. both predict 100% of crises, only the long model attains the maximum utility of 0,5 as...
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Preliminary Control of the Subsidiarity Principle after the Lisbon Treaty in Practice of the Parliaments of the Czech Republic and Italy
Krause, Eva ; Váška, Jan (advisor) ; Šlosarčík, Ivo (referee)
The presented bachelor thesis focuses on an analysis of the principle of subsidiarity in the legislation of the European Union - its theoretical basis and applied practice. The author provides a theoretical part in which the principle is presented in the legislation together with changes in status of national parliaments after the Lisbon Treaty, inter-parliament cooperation, the early warning system and academic reflexion regarding the topic. The core of the paper is in evaluation of efficiency of the control mechanism of the early warning system in the context of parliaments of the Czech Republic and Italy. Key words: European Union, Lisbon Treaty, National Parliaments, Principle of Subsidiarity, Early Warning System
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African Early Warning Systems: Challenges and Prospects for African Security Integration
Lutz, Luca Marius ; Michálek, Luděk (advisor) ; Karásek, Tomáš (referee)
In the course of past decades, the African Union has sought to strengthen continental security integration and joint governance, wherefore many early warning and security institutions emerged. However, little research has been done to explore the institutional landscape. This thesis aims to bridge the literacy gaps and investigate the ways African early warning institutions constitute challenges or prospects to security integration efforts. The continental level evaluates how integration is affected through various African early warning institutions. The regional level analyses how early warning institutions' methodologies influence sub-regional integration efforts. Lastly, the national level elaborates why African national intelligence and security sectors are determined by authoritarian governance. Similar to the three (continental, regional, national) research questions, this thesis is divided into three levels of analysis. First, the continental level evaluates the Continental Early Warning Systems' institutional struggle with its Regional Early Warning Systems and other organisations within and beyond the African Peace and Security Architecture. Second, the regional level examines the concepts and methodologies behind the six Regional Early Warning Systems for common features and differences....
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Early Warning System for recording outages from the assembly line
Makovičková, Lucie ; Zuth, Daniel (referee) ; Maradová, Karla (advisor)
The bachelor's thesis on a topic “Early Warning System for recording outages from the assembly line“ aims to update assembly line outages, thanks to what the work gained a good motive to present the Early Warning System process in practice, in the company Bosch Diesel s.r.o. Jihlava, where this update of assembly line outages takes place. The work first introduces the high-pressure pumps and their assembly lines, which are the most connected to the system. Then the basic elements of the system are described, and the Power BI system is defined. The practical part explains way of collecting the necessary data for outages updating and how the Early Warning System gets the information about outage during the installation of a high-pressure pump on the assembly line to the higher responsible persons. Subsequently, thanks to the obtained statistical overview of all outages and to the performed visualizations in the Power BI system, the knowledge is evaluated.
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Predicting stock market crises using investor sentiment indicators
Havelková, Kateřina ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
Using an early warning system (EWS) methodology, this thesis analyses the predictability of stock market crises from the perspective of behavioural fnance. Specifcally, in our EWS based on the multinomial logit model, we consider in- vestor sentiment as one of the potential crisis indicators. Identifcation of the relevant crisis indicators is based on Bayesian model averaging. The empir- ical results reveal that price-earnings ratio, short-term interest rate, current account, credit growth, as well as investor sentiment proxies are the most rele- vant indicators for anticipating stock market crises within a one-year horizon. Our thesis hence provides evidence that investor sentiment proxies should be a part of the routinely considered variables in the EWS literature. In general, the predictive power of our EWS model as evaluated by both in-sample and out-of-sample performance is promising. JEL Classifcation G01, G02, G17, G41 Keywords Stock market crises, Early warning system, In- vestor sentiment, Crisis prediction, Bayesian model averaging Title Predicting stock market crises using investor sentiment indicators
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Preliminary Control of the Subsidiarity Principle after the Lisbon Treaty in Practice of the Parliaments of the Czech Republic and Italy
Krause, Eva ; Váška, Jan (advisor) ; Šlosarčík, Ivo (referee)
The presented bachelor thesis focuses on an analysis of the principle of subsidiarity in the legislation of the European Union - its theoretical basis and applied practice. The author provides a theoretical part in which the principle is presented in the legislation together with changes in status of national parliaments after the Lisbon Treaty, inter-parliament cooperation, the early warning system and academic reflexion regarding the topic. The core of the paper is in evaluation of efficiency of the control mechanism of the early warning system in the context of parliaments of the Czech Republic and Italy. Key words: European Union, Lisbon Treaty, National Parliaments, Principle of Subsidiarity, Early Warning System
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Systemic Risks Assessment and Systemic Events Prediction: Early Warning System Design for the Czech Republic
Žigraiová, Diana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
This thesis develops an early warning system framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs, over the short horizon of six quarters and the long horizon of twelve quarters on the panel of 14 countries both advanced and developing. Firstly, Financial Stress Index is built aggregating indicators from equity, foreign exchange, security and money markets in order to identify starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Secondly, the selection of early warning indicators for assessment and prediction of systemic risks is undertaken in a two- step approach; relevant prediction horizons for each indicator are found by means of a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging method to identify the most useful indicators. Next, logit models containing useful indicators only are estimated on the panel while their in-sample and out-of-sample performance is assessed by a variety of measures. Finally, having applied the constructed EWS for both horizons to the Czech Republic it was found that even though models for both horizons perform very well in-sample, i.e. both predict 100% of crises, only the long model attains the maximum utility of 0,5 as...
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